The Major League Baseball Hall of Fame (HOF) has become sort of a joke these days. Part of it is because of the steroids/PEDs thing. I get it, that makes it complicated. But part of it, also, is that the voters are stupid! I don't mean "stupid" as in "I disagree with them, so I feel like calling them stupid." I mean "stupid" as in, "plain, old-fashioned, low intelligence." This week, the HOF had its latest round of inductions. As Dave Cameron pointed out, one writer voted for Hideo Nomo, but not for Greg Maddux! In order to pick Nomo over Maddux, you are either you are drunk, or you are Hideo Nomo. In either case, you should not be voting for the HOF.
Another reason the Hall of Fame is a joke, is that Edgar Martinez will probably never be accepted into it.
Edgar Martinez's career warrants induction to the Hall of Fame. To me, this is obvious. But to others, this is apparently not obvious. I am going to make a case for Edgar being in the HOF now. But, rather than argue FOR Edgar, I am going to argue AGAINST Edgar. And then I am going to show you how foolish those arguments are. Get pumped.
Here is what people say when arguing that Edgar is not Hall-worthy:
Argument #1: Edgar was primarily a Designated Hitter.
Of course, being a non-DH should not be a litmus test for being in the HOF. What if a player one day hits 5,000 HR in 5,000 AB and wins 5 World Series, but he was a DH. Should he be in the HOF? Obviously he should. So, in theory, DHs can be in the HOF.
But enough about theory. What about in reality? Well, as of this week, we also know that, today DHs are Hall of Famers. Frank Thomas was elected to the HOF this week. Frank Thomas spent the majority of his career as a DH. I could stop my response here, but instead I will keep going.
Here is the second reason that this argument lacks... err, reason. The thought is that DH's don't contribute to the game nearly as much as other players, because they don't play defense. Well, think about relief pitchers!
Over the past 20 years, the relief pitcher with the most Batters Faced was Mariano Rivera, with 4,870. Edgar Martinez had 8,674 plate appearances in his career. Tell me why Mariano Rivera's quantity of playing time allows him for the HOF, yet Edgar's does not. Edgar played almost twice as many at-bats as Mariano!
Numbers, guys. Numbers. They aren't that scary. I promise.
My third response to this stupid argument is the best one. It is crucial, and it separates those who understand player value, and those who don't. We have advanced metrics now, which quantify, in terms of Wins Above Replacement, the caliber of a player's performance. These metrics already factor-in positional adjustments, i.e. if a DH and a SS have identical batting performance, the DH's WAR will be significantly lower than the SS's, all else equal, because the DH is hurting his team by not defending and preventing runs, and because it is easier to replace a bat-only DH, versus a SS. Yet, despite this massive negative positional WAR adjustment applied to Edgar, his WAR total is still Hall-worthy! Let me spell this out for you in the next section, but basically, the point is that Edgar's value was massively diminished by being a DH... but it was STILL ultra-elite, because he did one thing exceedingly well - mash the heck out of baseballs.
But enough about theory. What about in reality? Well, as of this week, we also know that, today DHs are Hall of Famers. Frank Thomas was elected to the HOF this week. Frank Thomas spent the majority of his career as a DH. I could stop my response here, but instead I will keep going.
Here is the second reason that this argument lacks... err, reason. The thought is that DH's don't contribute to the game nearly as much as other players, because they don't play defense. Well, think about relief pitchers!
Over the past 20 years, the relief pitcher with the most Batters Faced was Mariano Rivera, with 4,870. Edgar Martinez had 8,674 plate appearances in his career. Tell me why Mariano Rivera's quantity of playing time allows him for the HOF, yet Edgar's does not. Edgar played almost twice as many at-bats as Mariano!
Numbers, guys. Numbers. They aren't that scary. I promise.
My third response to this stupid argument is the best one. It is crucial, and it separates those who understand player value, and those who don't. We have advanced metrics now, which quantify, in terms of Wins Above Replacement, the caliber of a player's performance. These metrics already factor-in positional adjustments, i.e. if a DH and a SS have identical batting performance, the DH's WAR will be significantly lower than the SS's, all else equal, because the DH is hurting his team by not defending and preventing runs, and because it is easier to replace a bat-only DH, versus a SS. Yet, despite this massive negative positional WAR adjustment applied to Edgar, his WAR total is still Hall-worthy! Let me spell this out for you in the next section, but basically, the point is that Edgar's value was massively diminished by being a DH... but it was STILL ultra-elite, because he did one thing exceedingly well - mash the heck out of baseballs.
Argument #2: Alright Stats Boy, I agree with you about the DH thing now. But Edgar just didn't have enough total career value to be in the HOF.
Wrong, Anti-Stats Boy.
Here is a list of all-time career Wins Above Replacement (WAR). WAR is widely-accepted as the greatest tool we have to compare players from different positions, teams, ballparks and eras. It controls for all the crappy noise out there in our data sets.
In the history of Major League Baseball, over 16,000 players have taken the field. In terms of career WAR, Edgar is ranked #109. He is in the 99.3% percentile in that regard. He accounted for 68.3 wins during his career, that a replacement-level player would have not provided.
Let's look at the all-time WAR list more closely. Of the players ranked #101-120 in all-time WAR (basically, Edgar's closest peers), 18 are retired and 2 are active. Of the 18 retired, 16 have been HOF eligible. Of those, 10 are in the HOF (63%).
So, almost two-thirds of Edgar's closest peers are in the Hall of Fame.
Here are some players who had lower career WAR than Edgar, who are currently in the HOF: Goose Goslin, Red Faber, Vic Willis and Eppa Rixey. There are dozens more.
Here is a list of all-time career Wins Above Replacement (WAR). WAR is widely-accepted as the greatest tool we have to compare players from different positions, teams, ballparks and eras. It controls for all the crappy noise out there in our data sets.
In the history of Major League Baseball, over 16,000 players have taken the field. In terms of career WAR, Edgar is ranked #109. He is in the 99.3% percentile in that regard. He accounted for 68.3 wins during his career, that a replacement-level player would have not provided.
Let's look at the all-time WAR list more closely. Of the players ranked #101-120 in all-time WAR (basically, Edgar's closest peers), 18 are retired and 2 are active. Of the 18 retired, 16 have been HOF eligible. Of those, 10 are in the HOF (63%).
So, almost two-thirds of Edgar's closest peers are in the Hall of Fame.
Here are some players who had lower career WAR than Edgar, who are currently in the HOF: Goose Goslin, Red Faber, Vic Willis and Eppa Rixey. There are dozens more.
Argument #3: Edgar never won a World Series.
Stop. That is not a litmus test either. Just look at the career WAR list (link above), and then tell me that is a litmus test.
Argument #4: Edgar was slow.
See our discussion above about WAR. WAR incorporates a player's speed via a number of avenues - batting average, base running value, etc. Edgar's career WAR was massively negatively affected by poor foot speed, due to a multitude of unfortunate injuries. Yet his WAR was still amazing, despite this! That's a great testament to his bat.
Let me tell you about something. There is an advanced metric called Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). It's actually not really "advanced." Its name tells you exactly what it is. If BABIP is advanced, then a pile of dog poop is also advanced. (It isn't.)
Hitters who run high BABIP are typically the fastest players, because they are able to turn dinky infield grounders - which randomly occur to all hitters - into hits, because they beat the throw to first. Edgar did not have this advantage. He could not leg them out.
But, Edgar's career BABIP was .335, versus a league-average of about .300 during his career.
So why did Edgar hit for such a high BABIP? Because he hit the ball HARD. "Mr. Double" hit the ball on the screws, over and over again. With greater initial velocity, his liners towards the infield holes or between outfielders had a lower chance of being caught, versus the average hitters'. It was harder to track down his hits, because they did not hang up in the air. It is remarkable how such a slow player had such a high BABIP.
This is an under-appreciated aspect of Edgar's game. We can easily quantify how screaming his line drives were using a very simple metric, yet nobody ever acknowledges it!
Argument #5: Edgar wasn't a good ambassador for baseball off the field.
Just kidding. No one has ever said that. Edgar was, by all accounts, one of the classiest people to ever play the game. Even-keeled, hard-working, respectful. He embodies the blue-blooded American we all strive to be, coming from humble beginnings and becoming a star.
Edgar was renowned for his plate discipline, and his eye for balls-versus-strikes. Well, did you know that Edgar was born with a wandering eye that set him at a natural disadvantage for pitch recognition? Edgar spent hours upon hours watching tennis balls fed through a pitching machine, inscribed with numbers on them. Why? So he could improve his pitch recognition. That's just flat-out inspirational.
Argument #6: Well, what was Edgar's single-greatest accomplishment?
Edgar was renowned for his plate discipline, and his eye for balls-versus-strikes. Well, did you know that Edgar was born with a wandering eye that set him at a natural disadvantage for pitch recognition? Edgar spent hours upon hours watching tennis balls fed through a pitching machine, inscribed with numbers on them. Why? So he could improve his pitch recognition. That's just flat-out inspirational.
Argument #6: Well, what was Edgar's single-greatest accomplishment?
You're joking, right? How about "The Double." This play saved baseball in Seattle. This play has its own Wikipedia page.
Edgar Martinez probably won't get in the Hall of Fame. But that's okay with me. The HOF is a joke, and it can't ever take away the man's accomplishments.
Edgar Martinez probably won't get in the Hall of Fame. But that's okay with me. The HOF is a joke, and it can't ever take away the man's accomplishments.
