Felix Hernandez is Having an Insane Season

If you read this blog, you know I critique the Mariners pretty hard at times. That is because I really think we can harness some of the advanced analytics being developed right now in today's world to better understand and improve the team. In this context, discussing what is wrong with the team is more productive than celebrating what is right. 

But don't be fooled. There definitely are bright spots on the 2014 Mariners. 

Let's talk about King Felix.

Felix Hernandez has been Chuck Norris-ing American League batters this season. I'm not going to spend a bunch of time writing about who King Felix is, because everyone should know who he is. (If you don't: see this link.)

Instead, I shall now present my favorite Felix stats. Try these at a cocktail party. People will think you're really cool, I promise.

• In his major league career, Felix has already amassed 45.7 fWAR (Fangraphs wins-above-replacement). At a typical-Felix rate of ~+5 fWAR per season, Felix only needs about 4 more seasons to equal the lifetime production of Mariners hero Edgar Martinez (+65.6 career fWAR). Felix is very likely to go down in MLB history as one of the greatest players to play in a Mariners uniform.
• If Felix maintains his current 2014 level of performance, he will accumulate almost +9 fWAR in 2014, almost 3 fWAR above his next-best season. He is having a phenomenal 2014.
• Here is a chart of the ten MLB pitchers with the highest fWAR this season:

• Felix's walk-per-9-innings rate (BB/9) is 1.42, which is 0.61 better than any previous years' BB/9. His gap versus the league-average BB/9 has been widening in recent years. Here is an historical chart from Fangraphs (Felix versus the league average):

• Felix's average changeup is clocking in at 89.4 miles per hour. His average four-seam fastball is less than 3 mph higher.  That is a very narrow split and is unconventional. Regardless, Felix's changeup has consistently been one of his best pitches in every season except for his rookie season.
• Felix is having more success with his curveball this season than in any previous season (same link as previous)
• Felix is a classy dude, and apparently very bright.  Even though Carlos Peguero's wife was convicted of wire fraud, Felix kept his cool. There wasn't a media circus. I think Felix was very wise in this regard.
• Felix has never been linked to any PEDs.
• Felix threw a perfect game one time.
• Felix is a boss:

(credit: Bing images)

James Jones: Let's Take a Closer Look

Most casual Mariners fans will smile when you mention James Jones. Jones is a rookie who was given an opportunity to play in the major leagues last month, and, frankly, he hasn't looked back. He has established himself as a top-of-the-lineup hitter, relying on hitting and speed to help his team succeed. James is young and cost-controlled. He is awesome, in certain ways. What a pleasant surprise!

Here is where I tell you that the tooth fairy isn't real: James hasn't performed very well, overall.

It is true that Jones has an above-average batting average of .280, along with 14 stolen bases (SBs). Those two things are good things. Normally, people who have high batting average, plus a lot of steals (especially when their steal rate is very high, like Jones) are valuable assets to a team. These players are typically above-average major leaguers. They are typically players who produce a lot of runs and value.

In their "First-half grades for the 2014 Seattle Mariners," the Seattle P-I said this:

James Jones, center fielder

Grade: A-

2014 stats: 51 games, .280 average, 51 hits, 6 RBIs, 0 homers, 32 strikeouts, 1 error

Jones has been a surprise rookie sensation. The speedster leads the Mariners by far with 14 stolen bases, and is averaging one hit per game. Heck, he is ranked second among Seattle's regular starters with a .280 batting average.

Batting average. Stolen bases.

Anyways, the point of this blog post is that: Jones isn't contributing a lot of value, overall.

There are three reasons why he isn't.  They are:

1. Jones rarely walks. 

2. Jones hits for almost no power.

3. Jones' defense is potentially mediocre.

Regarding point number 1, let's go back to the basics. Remember, OBP is more correlated to team wins than batting average. (By the way, SLG more correlated to wins than OBP, OPS greater than SLG, RC greater than OPS and wRC+ greater than RC.) But right now we are focusing specifically on walks and OBP. OBP is important, in the grand scheme of things.* And Jones' OBP (as of June 28th) is 0.313. That's not very good. Jones' OBP is low because, despite his solid batting average, he basically never walks. Jones' walk rate (BB%) is just 4.5%, versus an American League average of 8.1%. And remember, BB% may stabilize after just 120 Plate Appearances (PAs).  o date, Jones has 198 PAs. So, Jones may very possibly be a non-walker. That's a serious strike against him.

Okay, that's point number 1 above. Point number 2:  Power. (Or lack thereof.)

One measure of power is Slugging Percentage (SLG). Jones' SLG with the Mariners is just .344. The American League SLG this season is .397. The American League SLG among outfielders is .402. So, Jones is solidly below average in regards to power. In practice, this means the following: in 186 At-Bats (ABs), Jones has just 9 extra-base hits. That is poor.

SLG is one measure of power. Another is ISO: isolated power.** ISO = SLG - BA.

Basically, ISO asks: "at what rate did the hitter have extra-base hits, backing out(/correcting for/adjusting for) his batting average?" 

At 0.065, Jones' ISO is #215 out of 269 American League batters this season. He is barely above the 20th percentile. 

Okay, so James Jones doesn't get on base, and he doesn't hit for power. How is his defense?

Here's the deal.  The two best sources for fielding data (Fangraphs and BaseballReference.com) both give Jones below-average ratings. Fangraphs evaluates Jones at -2.7 runs worse than average and BaseballReference's Rfield rating for Jones is -5. In other words, Jones might have "saved" somewhere between 2 and 5 runs less than the average fielder at his position, so far in 2014. Jones has batted about 200 times. The average player-season consists of 600 plate appearances. So, if we multiply by three, to project linearly (-2.7 x 3 and -5 x 3), we calculate that Jones' defensive value is 8 to 15 runs worse than the average outfielder. A win approximately equals 10 runs (link), so, give or take, Jones' defense might be about one win below average.

Now, let's be clear: the sample size needed for any definitive statement of defensive value is about three player-seasons worth of data. With about 1/3rd of one season played, we can't say Jones' defense is bad.  But, we definitely cannot say it is good either.

Okay, got it:  OBP, SLG, Rfield. These are different components of James Jones. How do they weigh with the rest of Jones' performance?  Well, overall, Jones has been worth between 0.4 - 0.7 wins-above-replacement (WAR) this season (link1, link2). What does that project to, over the course of a full season? Again, Jones has played 1/3rd of a season. Multiplying by three, we can project that Jones is a +1.2 WAR and 2.1 WAR player, annually. 1.0-2.0 WAR equates to a role player. Very possibly, James Jones is a role player. Less likely, he is a solid starter, or a scrub (see previous link). It's not reasonable to think Jones will be a "Good Player" or an "All-Star" (although I hope I am wrong). So, most likely, we should think of James Jones as one of the following things:  (a) Role player.  (b) Solid starter.  (c) Scrub. 

Hmm.

Anyways, Jones shouldn't get an "A-" for his performance this year. Maybe a B-, at best. He is most likely below-average. The visible, preached-upon "batting average" and "stolen bases" statistics rate very well. But the peripheral stats - the ones that impact wins  to an even greater extent - are poor. 

Yes, Jones is young and cost-controlled. Maybe that attracts some teams. That's excellent. Perhaps the Mariners should trade him away. Let's acquire some better players for today. The Mariners are in the playoff hunt. Ignore the failures in the past. Play to win now. The Mariners can win a Wild Card spot, and they can win a Wild Card game, because they have Felix Hernandez. Let's make this happen! 

*winning is the grand scheme of things

** Isolated slugging (ISO) is an interesting statistic.  It was invented by Allan Roth and Branch Rickey in the 1950's.  Rickey was also famous for helping break the color barrier in major league baseball.

Has Brad Miller "Figured It Out"?

No, he has not.*

A number of people have noted Brad Miller's June resurgence and expressed a good deal of optimism.  Some articles, including this one, view the recent performance as an indication of positive things to come.  Brad Miller is fixed!

Their enthusiasm is mostly unfounded, unfortunately.

Last season, Brad Miller put up +1.7 wins-above-replacement (WAR) in just 335 Plate Appearances (PAs).  Projected over a full season (600 PAs), that is +3.0 WAR.  According to Fangraphs, +3.0 WAR is somewhere between "Solid Starter" and "Good Player."  We'll take it!  For a rookie for which there were mixed expectations, you can't expect much better than that.

Then Brad Miller had an absolutely horrendous April and May to begin 2014, where he posted a +37 wRC+.  For comparison, Carlos Zambrano's career wRC+ was +57.  Carlos Zambrano was a pitcher.

But then, after April-May, Brad Miller decided to not totally suck.  Brad Miller has a June "slash line" of .278/.344/.444, good for a +116 wRC+.  +100 wRC+ is set exactly to "average," so Brad Miller has been 16% better than the average MLB hitter here in June.

Unfortunately, digging a bit deeper, we see that this June's performance provides little evidence that Brad Miller is "fixed." 

Here are the two reasons Brad Miller has not yet "figured it out" yet:

• Brad Miller's June BABIP is 0.342
• Brad Miller's June K% is 24.2%

The BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is not sustainable.  The typical BABIP league-wide is closer to 0.300, give or take, year-to-year.  Miller is getting more hits to fall in due to pure random statistical chance, than is typical.

Now, the first article I linked to at the top of this post argues against me here.  It notes that, if you observe a sample back a full 30 days (not just since the start of June), Miller's BABIP is 0.313, and his performance over that timeframe is still good.  So, an artificially high June BABIP shouldn't be a reason to expect regression to lower, worse performance going forward.

The problem with that logic is twofold:

• Firstly, that 0.313 BABIP is still too high. This year's American League BABIP is 0.297, and Miller's career BABIP is 0.273. 
• Secondly, I am definitely not trying to prove Miller sucks.  I am trying to find evidence he is fixed.  I note that he has been less lucky when you expand the sample size.  That is not evidence that he is fixed, in any way.

Now, let's move on.  We should never read too much into BABIP anyways.  BABIP is subject to wild fluctuations, even over the course of a full player-season worth of data. Let's move on to the second point, about K%.

K% is the more import reason Brad Miller isn't "fixed" yet. K% is simply defined as: strikeouts divided by PAs.  Here is a table:

Brad Miller is striking out way too much.  Still... even here in June.

K% is a reliable indicator of hitter performance, and it stabilizes quickly, unlike BABIP (link).  That means you don't need a large sample size before you can forecast a player's K% going forward.  You only need about 60 PAs. Brad Miller has had 62 PAs in June, as of this writing.

The American League's average K% in 2014 is 19.6%.  For his career, Brad Miller's K% is 19.4%.  This is a reason I am not giving up on Brad Miller.  The best evidence I have - the full sample of his career MLB data - says that he could be average in a lot of metrics.  An average MLB shortstop is a valuable asset.  An average MLB shortstop probably makes $10-15mm per season on the open market.

But Miller's K% here in 2014 is near 25%.  Even in June, Miller is above 24%.  This doesn't lend credence to the idea that June has "fixed" him.

I am rooting for Miller, because I root for the Mariners. Very, very conceivably, Miller can be an average MLB shortstop.  That would be huge for the Mariners.  He is young and cost-controlled, not a free agent until 2020.  He remains a potentially very, very valuable asset to the Mariners.  There is no reason to give up on Miller right now.  But equally, there is no evidence to believe he has fixed his 2014 troubles, yet.

*I appreciate writers who get to the point.

The Mariners Bullpen: Has it Been Good, or Just Lucky?

You may have noticed I don't talk about bullpens or relief pitchers very much. If you have, then congratulations - you're the only person who has read multiple posts on this blog.

But seriously, I looked back. In 18 career blog posts to date, I have mentioned relief pitchers exactly two times. In one of those instances I made a comparison between Mariano Rivera* and Edgar Martinez. And we discovered that, over their careers, Edgar participated in 78% more Plate Appearances (PA) than Rivera had Batters Faced (BF). Yes, indeed. Edgar Martinez - the guy who wasn't a major league regular until age 27 - stepped into the batter's box almost twice as often as Rivera faced a new hitter.

Relief pitchers - even ones than play for 20 seasons, like Rivera - just don't end up totaling a lot of innings. They get a surprisingly small amount of participation over the course of the season.

In that context, it's not too surprising to learn the truth... which is this:

Relief pitchers just aren't THAT important, statistically.

Now, this makes me sad. Every former player (even if you stopped playing in Little League) knows that RP's are almost always the best personalities of the team:

I love RP's! But I also understand how the analyst world evaluates the true value of RP's. And the bottom line is, RP's  - even a whole bench full of them - can't really affect a season THAT much.

Let's demonstrate this more rigorously. Today we sit on June 14th, approximately 67 games through the 162-game season. We are 41% through the MLB season.

Below I've summarized the 2014 Relief Pitcher Fangraphs WAR (link) totals for each team in the MLB, as of today:

In the right column, I've projected year-end stats in a linear fashion. This is sabermetrically sacrilegious.  By projecting in a linear fashion, I am completely dodging mean regression. You can't do that. More on that in a moment.

First, note that median team in 2014 should only expect about 2.3 WAR from their RP's. Remember, an MLB starting position player tends to average about 2.0 WAR. Above-average starting position players create significantly more than +2.0 WAR.  So, the typical MLB team gets about as much marginal value from their entire bullpen as they do with just one "ho-hum" starting position player.

Note also that the very, very best, elite bullpen (if liberally projected to +8 WAR) should be approximately as valuable on the margin as an MVP candidate position player. (See here for WAR grid, and see here for 2013's team bullpen WAR leaders.)  That sounds impressive! But... note that I could rewrite the first sentence of this paragraph as:  A single great position player can be as valuable as an entire bench of arms - even the very best ones.

Now it doesn't sound quite as impressive.

And again, remember that the +8.0 WAR number above is a linear projection, and assumes that the MLB's best bullpen to date in 2014, stays that way, and does not revert to a more typical level of performance.

In summary: Relief pitchers can push a very good team over the top to greatness. But they can't make a bad team average, or an average team good.

Turning our focus back to the Mariners: The Mariners relief pitching has been cited as being a big positive for this 2014 team. Perhaps it's been a reason they have been modestly successful, over all, this season.

What does the data say?  It says that the Mariners bullpen has been worth 1.9 WAR so far this season. That is 9th best out of 30 MLB teams. If we continue at this pace (linear projection - unrealistic), then the Mariners bullpen will add about 4 wins to this year's squad, relative to a replacement-caliber squad. Not bad. But probably not hugely impactful, either.

Well, bad news. +4 WAR from the 'pen isn't happening this season. Why? Because the team's performance will very likely regress to the mean.

I alluded to mean regression above, but let me explain it in more detail now: We should expect the Mariners bullpen to be less lucky in the next portion of this season.

Why? What if they are truly this talented? After all, +1.9 WAR doesn't seem like a lot. Why can't they keep up that pace?

They could. But we definitely should not expect that to happen. Here is why.

Below are summary stats for the 2014 Mariners bullpen at the moment.  These are MLB ranks:

• #4 in ERA - tells us they aren't allowing a lot of runs, if we "back-out" the number of errors
•  #9 in FIP - tells us they aren't allowing a lot of runs, if we adjust their numbers to the league-average fielding
• #6 in xFIP - tells us they aren't allowing a lot of runs, if we adjust to league-average fielding, and correct for HR/FB rate

These are really good rankings.  But it's important to note that only one of these metrics accounts for any degree of "luck" - the xFIP, which corrects for HR/FB%. (An outlier HR/FB% is thought to be a random statistical anomaly that can greatly affect performance outcomes - so xFIP corrects for it.)

None of these metrics correct for another type of luck - the percentage of inherited baserunners stranded: Left On Base Percentage, or LOB%.

LOB% is thought to be highly interdependent with sequencing, i.e. the lucky/unlucky timing of batted ball event sequences. Remember my analogy I made here, about an extreme example where all doubles happened to occur with the bases loaded. Sequencing can wildly affect outcomes, all the way up to W-L record.

Well, where do the Mariners rank on LOB%?  They are #1 in the MLB - the highest percentage. The Mariners are stranding 81% of inherited base runners, versus an MLB-average of 74.3%.  

Let's play devil's advocate. In order to believe that the Mariners will maintain an LOB% of 81%, you need to believe either (a) the Mariners are more "clutch" than the rest of the league, (b) the Mariners are lucky or (c) some combination of the two.

**takes Analyst hat off for one minute**

My personal opinion is that there is indeed some innate "clutch factor" in existence. This is where I fundamentally disagree with a number of sabermetricians, including this one.  

But, the fact that the serious analysis on this topic has yielded mixed results, makes me believe that randomness and chance play a much, much larger role than "clutchness", especially in the long run.

So, with MLB's #1 LOB%, the Mariners RP's have most likely been quite lucky so far this season.  We should expect them to perform worse, based on the "luck" factor... all else equal.

Subtle, but important point - I am NOT saying that the Mariners bullpen is bad. Since I can't compare the magnitude of the "clutch" factor versus the "luck factor," I can't tell you exactly how lucky they've been or exactly how talented they are. It's certainly conceivable that, stripping out all the luck, the Mariners bullpen is still far above-average.

But keep in mind, even at +4 WAR pace (unlikely to be sustained), the Mariners bullpen simply doesn't get on the field enough to matter, that much. Relief pitchers just aren't THAT important, relative to other players.

*Side note:  Mariano Rivera had an incredible career, but his book throwing former teammate Robinson Cano under the bus is an embarrassment.  I was very excited Cano played it off.  He's a chill dude... which is probably what bothers people when they realize that, statistically, Cano is elite.  He compares very favorably to Derek Jeter:  link

Did Ackley Have a "Mental Revelation"?

On May 13, 2013, Dustin Ackley got sent down from the Seattle Mariners to its AAA affiliate in Tacoma for some additional work after starting the season with a horrendous "slash line" of .205/.266/.250 (BA/OBP/SLG).

Yeah, a .250 SLG.

For fun, let's look at some other ways you can achieve a .250 SLG:

1. Go 1-16 with a HR and 15 groundouts

2. Go 16-64 with 16 singles

3. Show up to the field late, go 1-4 with a single, go to McDonald's after the game

Dustin Ackley reeeeally just kinda sucked at the start of last season. Seems like a cool guy, but man, those numbers aren't gonna keep you around long.  

Anyhow, point of this story is: Tacoma is where he apparently got good, again, in the eyes of some. He got promoted after a month and then had a tremendous second half of the year in the major leagues.

As Larry Stone reported, Ackley snagged a copy of H. A. Dorfman's The Mental Side of Baseball while he was in Tacoma. This is a well-known book... about... the mental side of baseball, essentially. And Ackley says it changed him. It taught him he mostly needed to improve his mental state, above anything else.

Ignore the swing for a while. It is fine. Just get your mind right.

This change happened about 12 months ago from today. What I want to do is figure out whether he is actually better now, than he was before. We'll have a look in a moment.

First, please remember, as always: correlation does not imply causation. Even if we see improved performance since he read this book, that isn't proof that the book caused the improvement.

But I would argue strongly that there probably is some degree of causality in this case. I definitely believe there is a general causality between a player's mental state and his performance. This is where I take off my analyst hat and just rely on experience and gut feel.

Anyways...

The Data

Of the above metrics, wRC+ is the most highly-correlated to team wins, so let's just focus on it for a second. +100 wRC is a good way of defining a league-average hitter. At +97 wRC, Dustin Ackley has basically been a league-average hitter, for the past 12 months. That's the first thing to note.

More to the point here, since the commencement of the mental revolution, has Ackley performed better? Well, he's definitely not worse. He's a little bit better. He was a 16% below average hitter (84 wRC+), and since that time he is 3% below average (97 wRC+).

Do we have a large enough sample size to believe his new true talent level has changed? Probably not. We have 464 PAs - less than one season's worth of batting data.

Over the course of just one season, strange things happen. Bill Mueller won the AL batting title in 2003.

12 months from now, if Ackley remains a healthy MLB starter, we will have 2 full season's worth of post-revolution Ackley data. At that point, his sustained improvement would be twice as meaningful. We would probably be about twice as confident his true talent level has changed.

But even then, a year from now, if Ackley remains league-average ish, or better... we still won't definitely be able to say that H. A. Dorfman's* book changed him. Nope. Until we have some sort of scientific method available for this type of analysis, I'm afraid we cannot prove that, beyond a reasonable doubt.

But it doesn't mean it's not the truth, either.

Trade Mike Zunino to Atlanta

Trade idea:

Trade Seattle Mariners Catcher Mike Zunino for Atlanta Braves Catcher Evan Gattis

Rationale:

The Mariners are buyers. Whether they're overachieving or not, their 34-29 record puts them in the current #2 wild card slot with 54.1% odds to reach the playoffs, as of June 9th. With Felix Hernandez taking the mound in a potential one-game wild card playoff game (or, if Felix is unavailable due to injury or short rest, Hisashi Iwakuma pitching), the Mariners would almost certainly be favorites to advance to the ALDS. My Oh My!

Bottom line - the team's sole focus right now needs to be increasing that 54.1% chance. After 162 games, that percentage will either be 100% or 0%. What they do between now and then determines which of those two it will be. While that percentage remains above, say, 25% or so, every game means everything... and when it's above 50%, it's even more true. You've got to commit to now, right now.

So, should the Mariners "mortgage the future," to win now? Absolutely they should. And fans should be disappointed if they don't.

The key is in the details. Sell some future value for present value. Just don't be an idiot about it.

Here is a smart way to do it. The below table summarizes the rest-of-season Wins Above Replacement (WAR) forecasts by ZiPS and Steamer, arguably the two most prominent projection systems available:

	Evan Gattis	Mike Zunino
ZiPS	1.5	1.2
Steamer	1.9	1.1
Avg	1.7	1.15

This tells us that the Mariners are expected to win about 0.55 more games (1.70 - 1.15) in 2014 by having Gattis versus Zunino.

So, why would Atlanta do this trade? Well, go ahead and look at the two players again. Zunino is a former elite prospect, a #2 overall draft selection. Gattis was a 23rd round pick in 2010 and didn't make the major leagues until last season. Gattis is already 27 years old, while Zunino is only 23 years old. In fact, I would speculate the Mariners could get more in return for Zunino, than just Gattis. That's be a cherry on top, but not required for this deal to make sense.

So, why would the Mariners do this trade? Well, we just talked about how, right now, in 2014, Gattis is the more valuable player. So that's reason #1. I don't think any more needs to be said here. If you are favored to make the playoffs, you do absolutely everything in your power to go out and win it. Fortune favors the bold, or something.

Now, the world is presumably not ending in 2014. So, there are other considerations to take into account, which have to do with 2015 and beyond, strictly. Those considerations are age and the number of years of team control. Age is important, because young players are usually before their peak, and older players might be already at, or beyond, their peak. Team control is important because free agency throws massive money at players, and their net value to franchises is subsequently hammered. So, age and team control matter a lot.

Anyways, to summarize these two future considerations: 

• Age: Zunino wins. He is 23, versus Gattis being 27.
• Team Control: Zunino wins, but only barely. Zunino is a free agent in 2020, versus 2019 for Gattis. That's because Gattis didn't play in the MLB until last season, at age 26.

Let's talk more about age. Gattis' "age disadvantage" is actually likely one reason why, today, he is a superior player than Zunino. 27 year-old MLB catchers are typically near their baseball peak. 23 year-olds typically not at their peak. (Catcher Aging Curves.) In other words, if we account for age, we are also making a declaration about talent and value. And value-wise, Gattis is better than Zunino, right now, as discussed. Age and talent are not independent concepts. They are related.

So, age definitely matters, but how much do we care about it, right now, in 2014? Zero. Both players, in the future, could be horrible busts. Or, put it this way - if Zunino turned out, four years from now, to perform just like Gattis, would anybody find that disappointing? Would anyone be surprised? I would actually be happy, if that happened. Gattis could be a 3-4 WAR catcher in 2014. That is incredibly valuable. Robinson Cano is on pace for about 6-7 WAR this season. He is going to collect a quarter billion dollars, guaranteed. 3-4 WAR is pretty good.

And again, the team control difference of one year is something. But it's a small thing, and it's something to worry about in 2019 - not before then.

This is a good old-fashioned, "straight-up, my guy for your guy" type of baseball trade. It's also a classic way for the Mariners to add value today and sacrifice some later. It's like taking a loan from the bank. The Mariners are at an important moment, and they should borrow every last scrap of credit available at the market price.*

This trade very well could be actionable. It makes the Mariners better. Do it.

*They should do more trades like this. Is there a similar opportunity to deal Justin Smoak?