The Mariners Are Overachieving

The Mariners are overachieving. Here is why.

As of May 30th, the Mariners:

• have scored 218 runs and allowed 207 runs 
• have 26 wins and 27 losses

The Mariners have scored more times than their opponents, yet they have a losing record. So, wait. That means the team is under-achieving, right?  

Unfortunately not. In fact, the Mariners might be the most overachieving team in the Major Leagues so far this season.

In order to understand why, you need to understand the concept of linear weights. Linear weights strip out all of the lucky/unlucky timing and sequencing of when batting, pitching and fielding events occurred within a game, and they just focus on totaling the number of positive and negative events. In doing so, you are getting greater predictive value than if you simply rely on the total number of runs a team has scored and prevented.

Quick example, in layman's terms: If all of the Mariners' doubles this season had occurred when there were two outs and nobody on base, yet all of the A's doubles occurred when the bases were loaded with nobody out, then the A's would have benefited massively from the lucky timing of their doubles. The A's would be getting a guaranteed minimum of 3 runs on each of their doubles, while the Mariners would be lucky to get 1 run on average. Linear weights strip out this luck, and just focus on the total number of "good things" Mariners batters have done, versus A's batters.

Here is a better explanation of linear weights. In fact, this article was the reason I made this post. It pointed out how the Mariners were overachieving significantly.

Dave Cameron, the author of the post above, creates expected runs, expected runs against and expected run differential, using a series of linear weights.

So far this season, the Mariners:

• have a +11 run differential, but 
• have a -16 expected run differential

In other words, they are overachieving by about 27 runs this season, just due to lucky timing/sequencing. That is #1 in the Major Leagues.

Here is a scary thing. The Angels have under-achieved by 36 runs this season. That is worst in the major leagues. They are kicking ass, despite getting unlucky due to timing. They are no joke; they are finally playing like their massive payroll would suggest.

So, yeah.  Don't get too excited, Mariners fans. It's going to take a LOT of luck to make the playoffs this season. Even more than the team has had already.

The Mariners' #1 Problem Remains the Mariners' #1 Problem

Before the 2014 season started, I wrote a blog post called The Mariners' #1 Problem. It described how awful the team's outfield defense was in 2013, it and lamented about how it was unlikely to change headed into 2014. That forecast was sadly proven to be correct, and now we are dealing with a similar version of the exact same problem with today's team.

Here is a summary of the situation, going back to last year:

• In 2013, many fans were impressed with Raul Ibanez's "offensive resurgence" at age 40. He hit 29 home runs! 29!!
• However, baseball is a complicated game. You don't just win by hitting home runs.*
• The winner of a baseball game is the one who scores the most runs.
• You can score runs by other methods than hitting home runs.
• Sometimes, you are called upon to prevent runs, as well. One man's base hit can be another man's fat, slow outfielder.  There is a defensive component to the game. Just as a penny saved is a penny earned, a run saved is a run scored!
• Advanced tools allow us to evaluate defensive runs saved.
• In 2013, Raul Ibanez was 23 runs worse than the average outfielder, defensively-speaking. 23 runs!!
• Raul wasn't the entire problem. As a whole, the 2013 Mariners outfielders were about 50 runs worse than average. 50 runs!!  That's like 0.3 runs per game - good bye! peace! - just because you have incompetence in the outfield when balls come their way.
• In 2009, Franklin Gutierrez's defense was worth +33 runs versus the league-average outfielder. That is a crazy thing to think about.  In other words, every 5 games on average, Franklin did something amazing that the average outfielder cannot do, and that saved the Mariners one run.
• The 2013 Mariners' worst defenders were Raul Ibanez and Mike Morse, but Dustin Ackley and Michael Saunders were below-average outfielders as well.
• 2013 Dustin Ackley was worth 4 runs less than the average outfielder.
• 2013 Michael Saunders was worth 5 runs less than the average outfielder.
• The Mariners got rid of Ibanez and Morse, but they still have Ackley and Saunders

Here is a comparison of the 2013 and 2014-to-date Mariners, in terms of the share of total defensive outfield innings each player has held:

Let's create a new variable, called AckDers

Let AckDers = Ackley + Saunders

AckDers is a peculiar animal. At times, his offensive potential is assumed to be all-star caliber. It has just never really ever realized that potential.  :(

AckDers is also young. Presumably, then, AckDers is fast.  Presumably, then, AckDers is good at defense.

However AckDers was worth 9 runs (4+5) less than the average outfielder in 2013, as mentioned above. Maybe it's because AckDers has poor arm strength, poor arm accuracy, poor reads on line drives or poor decision-making. Whatever the case, outright speed certainly is not enough to make AckDers into an above-average defensive outfielder.

In 2013, AckDers played 34% of the Mariners' defensive outfield innings.

In 2014, AckDers has played 43% of the Mariners' defensive outfield innings.

So, AckDers is an enormous component of the Mariners' outfield. And, lacking defensive value, this lackluster AckDers thing needs to hit well, in order to positively influence its team's outcomes.

But, no. In 2013, Saunders approached average offensive value (98 wRC+), but Ackley was poor offensively (+84 wRC+). (If you don't know what wRC+ is, here is what wRC+ is.)

What else is there in the Mariners' outfield? Well, the Mariners have given more OF innings in 2014 to Abraham Almonte.  I gotta say, I enjoy parts of Abe's game. I like his hustle and his enthusiasm.  That is great. Unfortunately, those things are greatly outweighed by the fact that he's just not very good offensively. I mean, he is good. He would kick my ass, for sure. But for a MLB player, he is actually just bad, unfortunately. Abe has played 32% of the Mariners' total OF innings this year, which basically means he has played the entire season, almost every inning, in the outfield.  Defensively, he has posted a +6 run value, in terms of runs saved versus a typical MLB outfielder. Unfortunately, the tiny sample size on that renders it nearly useless. In fact, even a full player-season's worth of defensive data isn't even considered useful right now. But offensively, where we can gather sufficient sample size sooner, Abe has "contributed" a wRC+ of 49. That means he is about 50% worse than average.  If the average on the math exam was 80%, Abe gets about a 50% or 60%, depending on the standard deviation of the results.

Bottom line, the Mariners outfield was poor last year, and they didn't improve it. Swapping awful defensive value from Raul Ibanez for awful offensive value from Almonte is a wash. The core AckDers component remains, and while it isn't awful, it's just sort of "blah." 

Don't get me wrong, the Mariners can win with Ackley and Saunders.  I've written previously about how league-average-ish players can be viable contributors on a championship team. However, this team is not good enough outside of their OF to win anything this season.  There is too much mediocrity elsewhere. The team needed a big step forward in its OF this offseason, and it didn't happen.

*I am at least 80% sure of this.