Is It Time to Give Up on Dustin Ackley?

No.

It is not time to give up on Dustin Ackley.  Not quite.  Let me tell you why.

For the purposes of making this argument, I am NOT going to focus simply on his recent hot-hitting, after getting called back up to the Mariners from Tacoma last summer.

Instead, I am going to look at his full body of work at the Major League level, and thereby consider a larger sample size.  Then I am going to compare him to similar players, and see how their careers panned out.  This is how we will get an expectation for Ackley's future.

First, let's start with some basics.  There are several statistics that sabermetricians favor when evaluating a hitter's true, core talent level.  These stats have superior predictive power, versus more layman's metrics like batting average (which is skewed based on the ballpark and league in which one plays), let alone "counting stats" like HR and RBI, which are even dumber to use.  These advanced metrics cut to the core of fundamental, raw performance and talent.

• Strikeout percentage (K%) - the number of times a hitter strikes out, as a percentage of plate appearances
• Walk percentage (BB%) - the same metric, but for walks
• ISO - Slugging Percentage minus Batting Average, or, "raw power"
  
  

So, when we use these stats, we are evaluating hitters based on how frequently they strike out and draw walks, and how much power they have.

Now, on to the numbers.  For his major league career (1,471 plate appearances) Ackley has a:

• K% of 18.70%
• BB% of 9.20%
• ISO of .109

Based on those numbers, and based on Ackley's age and experience level, who are some comparable players, historically, and how did their careers turn out?

I looked back at the data.  Over the past 30 years, I found players with at least 900 plate appearances in their age 23-25 seasons.  (Ackley's career to date has encompassed ages 23-25.)  I filtered for players with a BB% within 1.5% (higher or lower) of Ackley's, a K% within 2% and an ISO under .150.  There were 13 such players. 

Next I found the number of oWAR - Offensive Wins Above Replacement - for the next three seasons, for each player.  Then I prorated that into 500 plate appearances.  This creates a metric that evaluates the hitter's offensive value per season, since in a typical season, you should expect somewhere around 500 plate appearances.  I am calling this metric "oWAR/500."  Sounds like an evil bot from Star Wars.  It isn't.  It is a thing that has to do with baseball-hitting. 

Here is my data table...

Of these 13 comparable players, the mean oWAR/500 is about 1.35.  The median was 1.2.  The high was 3.2, and the low was (0.6).

So, Ackley's bat projects to add somewhere between 1 and 2 wins per season, for the next three years.

That isn't spectacular.  It isn't even good.  It's pretty close to average.

So, why is Dustin still an asset, on net?

Because he will play better in the outfield than Corey Hart or Logan Morrison, and his contract is a good one for the franchise.

The Mariners outfield defense has been horrendous in recent years (see this link to one of my previous posts), and is setting up to suck again in 2014.  A healthy Ackley displaces defensive innings from Hart or Morrison, and leaves them at 1B or DH, where they belong.

As for the salary, Ackley's salary last year was $1.5mm, which is a bargain in the current market.  He is arbitration-eligible next offseason.  He won't get much of a raise in arbitration, though.  And he's not a free agent until 2018.  That last part is crucial.  It means he is cost-controlled for several more years.

Ackley could bomb in 2014, or he could be a borderline All-Star.  But neither of those are our base case. 

Our base case is a hitter that is probably only slightly below average.  If he can be a roughly league-average hitter and league-average fielder, there is value in that.  Championship teams have plenty of average players.  Average players can make more than $10mm per year on the free market.  So, an average, cost-controlled player is a net positive for almost any organization.  There is not a lot of sense in giving up on Ackley right now.