The Mariners Are Overachieving

The Mariners are overachieving. Here is why.

As of May 30th, the Mariners:

• have scored 218 runs and allowed 207 runs 
• have 26 wins and 27 losses

The Mariners have scored more times than their opponents, yet they have a losing record. So, wait. That means the team is under-achieving, right?  

Unfortunately not. In fact, the Mariners might be the most overachieving team in the Major Leagues so far this season.

In order to understand why, you need to understand the concept of linear weights. Linear weights strip out all of the lucky/unlucky timing and sequencing of when batting, pitching and fielding events occurred within a game, and they just focus on totaling the number of positive and negative events. In doing so, you are getting greater predictive value than if you simply rely on the total number of runs a team has scored and prevented.

Quick example, in layman's terms: If all of the Mariners' doubles this season had occurred when there were two outs and nobody on base, yet all of the A's doubles occurred when the bases were loaded with nobody out, then the A's would have benefited massively from the lucky timing of their doubles. The A's would be getting a guaranteed minimum of 3 runs on each of their doubles, while the Mariners would be lucky to get 1 run on average. Linear weights strip out this luck, and just focus on the total number of "good things" Mariners batters have done, versus A's batters.

Here is a better explanation of linear weights. In fact, this article was the reason I made this post. It pointed out how the Mariners were overachieving significantly.

Dave Cameron, the author of the post above, creates expected runs, expected runs against and expected run differential, using a series of linear weights.

So far this season, the Mariners:

• have a +11 run differential, but 
• have a -16 expected run differential

In other words, they are overachieving by about 27 runs this season, just due to lucky timing/sequencing. That is #1 in the Major Leagues.

Here is a scary thing. The Angels have under-achieved by 36 runs this season. That is worst in the major leagues. They are kicking ass, despite getting unlucky due to timing. They are no joke; they are finally playing like their massive payroll would suggest.

So, yeah.  Don't get too excited, Mariners fans. It's going to take a LOT of luck to make the playoffs this season. Even more than the team has had already.