Trade Mike Zunino to Atlanta

Trade idea:

Trade Seattle Mariners Catcher Mike Zunino for Atlanta Braves Catcher Evan Gattis

Rationale:

The Mariners are buyers. Whether they're overachieving or not, their 34-29 record puts them in the current #2 wild card slot with 54.1% odds to reach the playoffs, as of June 9th. With Felix Hernandez taking the mound in a potential one-game wild card playoff game (or, if Felix is unavailable due to injury or short rest, Hisashi Iwakuma pitching), the Mariners would almost certainly be favorites to advance to the ALDS. My Oh My!

Bottom line - the team's sole focus right now needs to be increasing that 54.1% chance. After 162 games, that percentage will either be 100% or 0%. What they do between now and then determines which of those two it will be. While that percentage remains above, say, 25% or so, every game means everything... and when it's above 50%, it's even more true. You've got to commit to now, right now.

So, should the Mariners "mortgage the future," to win now? Absolutely they should. And fans should be disappointed if they don't.

The key is in the details. Sell some future value for present value. Just don't be an idiot about it.

Here is a smart way to do it. The below table summarizes the rest-of-season Wins Above Replacement (WAR) forecasts by ZiPS and Steamer, arguably the two most prominent projection systems available:

	Evan Gattis	Mike Zunino
ZiPS	1.5	1.2
Steamer	1.9	1.1
Avg	1.7	1.15

This tells us that the Mariners are expected to win about 0.55 more games (1.70 - 1.15) in 2014 by having Gattis versus Zunino.

So, why would Atlanta do this trade? Well, go ahead and look at the two players again. Zunino is a former elite prospect, a #2 overall draft selection. Gattis was a 23rd round pick in 2010 and didn't make the major leagues until last season. Gattis is already 27 years old, while Zunino is only 23 years old. In fact, I would speculate the Mariners could get more in return for Zunino, than just Gattis. That's be a cherry on top, but not required for this deal to make sense.

So, why would the Mariners do this trade? Well, we just talked about how, right now, in 2014, Gattis is the more valuable player. So that's reason #1. I don't think any more needs to be said here. If you are favored to make the playoffs, you do absolutely everything in your power to go out and win it. Fortune favors the bold, or something.

Now, the world is presumably not ending in 2014. So, there are other considerations to take into account, which have to do with 2015 and beyond, strictly. Those considerations are age and the number of years of team control. Age is important, because young players are usually before their peak, and older players might be already at, or beyond, their peak. Team control is important because free agency throws massive money at players, and their net value to franchises is subsequently hammered. So, age and team control matter a lot.

Anyways, to summarize these two future considerations: 

• Age: Zunino wins. He is 23, versus Gattis being 27.
• Team Control: Zunino wins, but only barely. Zunino is a free agent in 2020, versus 2019 for Gattis. That's because Gattis didn't play in the MLB until last season, at age 26.

Let's talk more about age. Gattis' "age disadvantage" is actually likely one reason why, today, he is a superior player than Zunino. 27 year-old MLB catchers are typically near their baseball peak. 23 year-olds typically not at their peak. (Catcher Aging Curves.) In other words, if we account for age, we are also making a declaration about talent and value. And value-wise, Gattis is better than Zunino, right now, as discussed. Age and talent are not independent concepts. They are related.

So, age definitely matters, but how much do we care about it, right now, in 2014? Zero. Both players, in the future, could be horrible busts. Or, put it this way - if Zunino turned out, four years from now, to perform just like Gattis, would anybody find that disappointing? Would anyone be surprised? I would actually be happy, if that happened. Gattis could be a 3-4 WAR catcher in 2014. That is incredibly valuable. Robinson Cano is on pace for about 6-7 WAR this season. He is going to collect a quarter billion dollars, guaranteed. 3-4 WAR is pretty good.

And again, the team control difference of one year is something. But it's a small thing, and it's something to worry about in 2019 - not before then.

This is a good old-fashioned, "straight-up, my guy for your guy" type of baseball trade. It's also a classic way for the Mariners to add value today and sacrifice some later. It's like taking a loan from the bank. The Mariners are at an important moment, and they should borrow every last scrap of credit available at the market price.*

This trade very well could be actionable. It makes the Mariners better. Do it.

*They should do more trades like this. Is there a similar opportunity to deal Justin Smoak?