Some thoughts on the Seattle Mariners that I wanted to share.
The Mariners have been average or kind of bad or really bad for a long time. They haven't made the playoffs in like, I dunno, 10 years or something.
The M's have done a lot this offseason, but we are still gonna suck unless we make some more big moves. Robinson Cano is a reason to watch the team, but he's not enough to make them a winner. Corey Hart was a nice deal, but if it's the last major move, this team will bomb, again. Even with Cano. Even with Felix. Even with Iwakuma and Seager. The reason?? The back end of the rotation could totally suck next year, and our outfield is probably the worst in MLB. (Even if they put Hart out there, which they really should NOT do.)
The subsequent moves have to be creative. You can get a great team tomorrow by (a) spending a la the Dodgers last year and breaking the bank (which is hilarious because they still almost sucked), or (b) mortgaging the future by trading away a bunch of prospects... but neither approach is creative and therefore you usually are exposed to long term sucking again shortly thereafter. Creativity is key.
So in the case of the M's, we have loads of young prospects (I believe Baseball America ranked us the #2 farm system), but simply trading them all away for win-now talent really puts you in a bad situation down the road. That causes prolonged losing. Prolonged losing implodes the franchise. Thankfully we have the Seahawks.
The Seahawks are awesome, btw. They are probably winning the Super Bowl this year.
Anyways the M's haven't shown the slightest amount of creativity in forever. So we will probably not do any of this, and then we will suck again.
But here is how I would do it. Here is how you win in 2014 and 2015, while keeping core, young, but more importantly cost-controlled talent (ie Taijuan Walker and James Paxton.)
Plan for Mariners
· Trade Mike Zunino + ( Logan Morrison or Justin Smoak) for David Price. If TB doesn't bite, keep trying – but if they require Paxton or Walker, just forget it and scrap entire plan
· Trade Nick Franklin plus DJ Peterson (or lesser name eg Ackley) for Salvador Perez
· Sign Sin-Soo Choo to 6/120 mm contract
Analysis of Plan (see above for Plan, boss)
This makes us not just a playoff contender in 2014, but likely the AL West favorites. Here is why.
TB has a void at 1B. They need a Morrison or a Smoak. They will be lukewarm on their talent level (although they have had their eye on Morrison), but they will LOVE the fact that they have some upside (ie they are young) and are cost-controlled. Remember, they are not marketing Price because they want to lose. They are doing it to shed salary commitments. Similarly, TB will love Zunino, because there is the thought that he becomes a Buster Posey. That is unlikely. A lot of catchers look like they're going to be Posey (figuratively), and they they don't become him.
Kansas City needs a 2B. They are still in win-now mode based on their moves last offseason and marked improvement over 2012, so they will want someone with upside in 2014. Boom. Nick Franklin.
You trade Franklin plus DJ Peterson (or ideally a lesser prospect) for Salvador Perez
For those that don't know Salvador Perez, look him up. He is dirty. He plays C for KC. He is young and cost-controlled. He isn't a free agent until forever. That means he is a tremendously valuable asset to a franchise.
If you understand the basics of sabermetrics and know what WAR means, and you know where to find a sabermetric projection system (try Fangraphs), you will see that the M's need +6 WAR to be tied in forecasted WAR with the 3 current division leaders. The M's current roster is about +35 WAR vs +41 WAR for As/Angels/Rangers. That is why this team needs a LOT of luck to win the AL West given its current, flawed roster.
Also remember Nick Franklin doesn’t have a spot on the roster today. He cannot play SS. Huge liability there, decreases his value immensely.
I am getting tired of writing. Lightning round...
Ackley really doesn’t have a lot of upside, and seems to have lots of downside. He is only forecasted for about 1 WAR, that’s below league avg. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10099&position=2B
Smoak sucks. Maybe +1 WAR next year. Logan Morrison is similar... maybe +2 WAR at best.
You lose Zunino. He is forecasted for 2-3 WAR next year. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13265&position=C
Salvador Perez is great. Forecasted for 4.5 WAR next year. He is also young and cost controlled. I would rather have him versus Zunino. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7304&position=C
David Price is also great. Forecasted for 4.5 WAR next year with upside of 7-8 WAR. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P
You have Shin Soo Choo – forecasted around 4-5 WAR.
So let's do the math. You are losing, 3-4 WAR on a gross basis, but you are adding about 14 WAR. Net gain of 10-11 WAR.
At this point you are the division favorite by about 5 WAR… you have given yourself room when other teams inevitably add WAR towards the end of offseason.
Your payroll is around $65mm post-Cano, this brings it to $85mm. You add Price, that's about $100mm. You need to fill in other pieces of the line-up still, but you’re probably not going much above $110mm in payroll, maybe $120mm maximum, which we have been above historically. We are getting a massive cable TV deal with ownership rights. Look it up. This is doable. We can win the World Series next year and keep the future intact.
But again, we will probably mess it up. We aren't smart enough.
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