What does a true Seattle sports fan do on Monday Night? No, he doesn't watch two middling NFL teams play on Monday Night Football, to see how his fantasy team did, or whatever. He watches Seahawks game film on NFL Rewind, and then when MNF begins, blacking out Rewind, he/she goes straight to the Monday press conferences and re-reads injury reports. That's how a true fan behaves, baby! Let's goo!!
Anyways, I'm bored of listening to Pete Carroll talk over and over about how there are two tough games ahead, and homefield advantage is going to be tough to get, blah, blah, blah. (It isn't.)
So let's talk about the Mariners for ten minutes. Here's a simple trade idea: trade Michael Saunders for D-Backs platoon/reserve outfielder Gerardo Parra.
Who is Gerardo Parra, why should we acquire him and why is he worth Michael Saunders?
First, remember my last post explained how the Mariners outfield defense is really costing the team. The team's play out there cost the team about 50 runs, as compared to the average team last year. 50 runs!! That was the worst is baseball, and not a single Mariners OF player last year was rated as much as average defensively.
Gerardo Parra is a borderline-elite defender, who is undervalued and possibly being misused by the D-Backs. He's better than Saunders, but a clever negotiator might be able to convince Arizona of the opposite, get the trade done and steal easy value from the market.
Remember, defense is constantly undervalued by the market. So actually, if the Mariners were smart (they are NOT), they would realize that their biggest nightmare (outfield defense) is actually pretty easy to improve. And they would capitalize. Trading Saunders for Parra is a great way to do it.
***Side Note: The reason defense is undervalued by the market, is because the tools for evaluating it are new and are only understood by people with solid statistics and economics backgrounds (as well as people who read this blog), whereas offensive stats like batting average and OBP are plain as day. A 5th grader knows what they mean. Some GMs think more like 5th graders than adults, I am convinced.
We have solid tools for evaluating defense. One of them is UZR/150.
Remember, UZR/150 is a calculation of the number of runs versus league-average a player is worth, defensively, over the course of a year. It's a simple way of comparing fielders.
Over his career, Saunders has played 3,698 defensive innings, and is a -0.6 UZR/150. That's basically zero: the definition of a league-average defensive outfielder.
Over his career, Parra has played 5,112 defensive innings, and is a 15.3 UZR/150. That means, on average, every 150 games, Parra is saving his team 15 runs versus the league-average. That's a gold-glove caliber player (as you see here: link)
To put it even more simply, the value of Parra's glove over Saunders' is worth about 1.5 games per season. (His dWAR is 6.2 for his career. You divide that by the number of innings, then scale it to a 162 game season, and you get approximately 1.5.)
Okay, so having Parra's glove out there gets you on average 1.5 additional wins per year. So how do they compare offensively?
It's pretty much a wash. Parra is a sliver worse, probably.
Just like dWAR is the number of wins a player's glove is getting you, oWAR is the number of wins the player's bat, plus baserunning, is getting you.
Saunders has 1,656 career plate appearances and has a total oWAR of 4.5.
Parra has 2,460 career plate appearances and has a total oWAR of 3.0.
Prorate this to 500 AB's (a typical season), and what does this difference amount to? Parra gets you 0.6 wins/year above the replacement-level baseline, while Saunders gets you 1.35. So, Saunders' offense is better than Parra's, but by less than one win per year.
So on net, Parra is worth about one win per year over Saunders.
They're basically the same age - Parra is 6 months younger.
Parra will make around $2.5mm per year next year, and Saunders closer to $0.5mm.
That $2mm difference is well-worth the one win. (Don't believe me? Well, as a simple example, if the market value for wins is about $2mm, then Robbie Cano's implied market value is $240mm /2 = 120 wins. No.)
Okay, so if Parra is a better asset than Saunders, why would the D-Backs do this trade? Well, it's not a slam-dunk, but I believe it has a better than 50/50 chance of being accepted. In general, fielding value is undervalued by general managers, realtive to offensive value. We talked about this above. The perception says Saunders is a much better hitter than Parra, but in reality, the margin is tiny. And in fielding, Parra more than compensates for it. With this trade idea, like any good trade idea, we're hoping to outhink the D-Backs and capture net incremental value, at a below-market price. That's how any good trade idea should work, now that I think of it. Damn son, I am GOOD!
The other knock-on benefit here - right now the Mariners have Logan Morrison and Corey Hart scheduled to get a good deal of time in the outfield. Doing so is a big mistake. Their talent defensively in the outfield means they would need to hit like all-stars to overcome that, and generate meaningful positive value to the team. They should play 1B or DH, only.
I advocated trading Justin Smoak as a means to open up 1B for Hart/Morrison, and keep them out of the oufield. For the same reason, I advocate acquiring Parra, who will plant himself in at Safeco and roam the large outfield there well. It reduces the temptation to use Hart or Morrison there when you have a tremendous defender sitting on the bench. The drop-off is too pronounced; the players are too distinct in terms of their player profile.
Although, I'd be fine putting Parra on the bench against lefties. For his career, Parra has a .772 OPS versus right-handers, while just .593 versus lefties. Saunders is .688 / .629 - basically a wash. So, if used intelligently (i.e. just against righties) Parra is close to an all-start player - a well-above average hitter who is always going to give you exceptional defense.
This isn't as bold as some of my other ideas (e.g. trade for David Price), but this gets the team a little bit better. Throw it out to the D-Backs, and see if they mistakenly accept it.
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