Robinson Cano - How Long is He Going to be Good For?

Robbie Cano is signed until about age 40.  (Maybe it's 41, but who cares.  Keep in mind - I am too lazy to actually research, much.) 

Now, click on this link.:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphswd.aspx?teamid=0&pos=2B&season=2013&season1=1983&grid=50

This shows you the top 50 second basemen (by WAR) over the past 30 years, and how well they aged.  Darker the green box, better they were.

13 of these players are still active.  37 are retired.

Since the 13 active players' future performance is obviously TBD, let's look at the other 37.

Of the top 37 second basemen in the past 30 years:

• 27 were still playing when they were 35 years old.
• 5 were still playing when they were 40 years old.
• 3 were worth more than +10 WAR, total, from ages 35-40

If a player is producing less than +10 WAR over 6 years, he is a below league-average player.

So, 34 out of 37 players in this sample were below league average starting at age 35.

This sample is biased, as well.  It ranks the top players, and those players ought to have greater longevity, because they are more talented. 

More importantly, it self-selects away from injury risk.  Most of the players who suffered career-ending injuries, are not top-50 players.  So they are not included in this sample.

So in reality, you have less than a "3 out of 37" chance of having an above-average Cano from ages 35-40.  It's probably more like a 2-5% chance.

Wow.

So clearly, for the last 5 years of the Cano contract, we can't expect much.

This doesn't mean the contract was dumb or bad.  There are too many variables in terms of future price inflation, regional cable TV deals, the economy, etc. to be able to say with certainty whether it's a bad deal.  The market price of Cano is what someone will pay him.  And the M's paid him $240mm.  So for now, yes.  He is worth $240mm.

The M's have decided to go balls-to-the-wall with this contract. Their purchase is a tremendous asset to the franchise right now. It will deteriorate at an unexpected rate, but it will deteriorate quickly when it decides to.

What this means, is that the Mariners must win soon.  Each year decreases the likelihood that Cano is an important piece of a championship in Seattle.  Any depiction of this being a "New Era" in Seattle baseball is critically misleading.  We don't have 10 years of greatness ahead of us due to Cano.  We have 2, 3 or 5 years of a second baseman, probably.  There are 24 other guys on the team.

Now, fill out this roster in an intelligent way, or spend another decade being... a joke.

Go Hawks.