Originally posted on December 6, 2014
The 2014 Seattle
Mariners missed the playoffs by one game. How will 2015 end?
I don’t know. But here is what I think on the weekend prior to the
annual Winter Meetings:
As
currently constructed, the 2015 Mariners project to be one of the best
teams in Major League baseball. The
2015 Mariners currently project for
38.2 fWAR, fourth-best in MLB. The Mariners very likely will
increase that total, marginally, in the coming days because the team
does not have a reliable, every-day right fielder right now, nor a
plausible platoon scenario. They are expected to add this missing piece,
and they definitely ought to.
The
increase from adding this right fielder could increase fWAR by 1.0-3.0 fWAR. Currently, Mariners right fielders are projected for a
measly 0.6 fWAR. Remember, league average is around 2.0 fWAR. So,
substituting in a league-average RF into the current roster could potentially
win the team 1-2 more games in 2015. At the higher end of the talent
continuum, substituting in a player like Justin Upton into RF could
be expected to increase the team’s 2015 wins by 2-3, relative to the current
roster. (Upton is forecast for 3.1 fWAR in 2015, versus the current
roster’s 0.6 fWAR projection.) But, remember, by gaining Upton or
acquiring another player via trade, you would of course also need to
subtract the loss of talent given away in a trade.
An
increase of +2 fWAR would put the Mariners in a tie for expected
fWAR with Boston for the best-projected American League team. That’s a fancy way of saying that Seattle could very likely head
into 2015 as slight favorites to advance to the World Series. (In reality, the Mariners of course won't be favored by the
national media to advance to the World Series, but the more sophisticated
analyst community might give them a very real shot.)
But
let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Remember
the error bars around any type of WAR projection. Imagining in our
heads a bell curve of Wins versus WAR, we could expect to find actual
team wins to be within +/- 12 wins of their originally-projected
WAR. That’s the 95-percent confidence interval. In other words, by
sneaking past Boston in expected fWAR by 0.5 or 1.5 – or even 3.5! –
wins, we still need to remember that the team’s 2015 fortunes will
be overwhelmingly determined by luck. Good or bad, the “luck factor”
is going to dominate, like it often does in Major League Baseball and team
sports more generally.
Plus,
other teams aren’t done building for 2015. Obviously, these fWAR projections will shift as the
offseason progresses and talent is traded in the market.
The
Mariners pitching staff looks talented, and it looks deep. The Mariners’ starting pitchers are projected to be worth 11.9 fWAR in 2015,
second-best in the MLB, behind the Nationals. Moreover, the team
currently has 6 or 7 players on the roster that should be starting in
the MLB in 2015. If you believe in Erasmo Ramirez, the number is 7. If you do not believe in Erasmo Ramirez, then the number is 6.
Nelson
Cruz matters, but he doesn’t matter THAT much. Last year Nelson Cruz was worth +3.9 fWAR. That’s terrific. Truly
a great season. But that’s because he hit 40 HR. Unfortunately,
we don’t have overwhelming evidence to expect 4 win seasons from Cruz year-in, year-out. For his
career, Nelson Cruz has been worth +2.7 fWAR per 600 Plate Appearances (PAs)
(approximately one full season). Currently, Nelson Cruz is older than at
any previous point in Nelson Cruz’s life. He is six years beyond the
typical age-28 peak. Sure, Nelson Cruz could have another monster
season in 2015. But we should not expect that to
happen. Being a Designated
Hitter in 2015 will mean that Cruz cannot contribute value via his
defense. And the Mariners probably do not want Cruz to attempt to
impress them on defense and win innings out there. No. Historically
he is rated as a a solidly below-average outfield defender (see previous
link). So, Cruz needs to hit, and he needs to hit a lot to really move the
needle for the Mariners in 2015.
Austin
Jackson could be a crucial contributor to the 2015 Mariners. Austin Jackson’s 2014 season was the worst of his
career, at +1.0 fWAR. But this was driven by a
significant decrease in evaluated defensive value, which is much more
statistically erratic and difficult to quantify than offensive
performance. Let’s look at Jackson’s career as a whole. For
his career, Jackson has been worth +2.9 fWAR per 600 PAs. A rebound from
+1.0 to +3.0 would give the Mariners a solid boost of two more expected
wins. Will it happen? It’s certainly possible. After all,
Jackson is still only 27 years old.
The
Mariners need to “go for it” in 2015. This is my final thought. Why do I say the team needs to
“go for it” (and what does that mean, anyways)? Because Robinson Cano is
32 years old. King Felix is in his peak years. Hisashi Iwakuma –
one of the team’s top players – is 33 years old. We should not be shocked
to see a material decrease in performance from Nelson Cruz, at age 34. So, one could argue that the window is closing. Equally important, the Mariners have trade chips. The current
roster has 6 starting pitchers, maybe 7. The Mariners have an elite
prospect in Alex Jackson, as well as D.J. Peterson. I’m sure 29 Major
League teams would love to get their hands on James Paxton or Taijuan Walker,
or heck, potentially even Danny Hultzen has some value, as he attempts to
come back from injury this spring. What does this all mean?
Simply put: if you’re calling the shots, don’t be afraid. Get
as much payroll from ownership as you possible can. Make this Mariners
team as good as possible in 2015, and sacrifice some future value or
talent, if you need to.
Maybe those 2015
projections will end up correct, after all.
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