Don’t Worry About Whether David Price Would Re-sign with Seattle

Originally published 7/23/14

Don’t worry about whether David Price would re-sign with the Seattle Mariners.  That question isn’t very relevant.

It’s late July, and that means the whole baseball world is talking about MLB players being traded at the month-end deadline. David Price is thought to be the best available starting pitcher, and the Mariners – sitting in playoff position, with some organizational depth/tradable prospects and potentially a general manager feeling the “win immediately” pressure – have been considered potential trade candidates for Price.

Nevermind for a moment that Tampa Bay has been playing exceedingly well in recent weeks. It is very plausible that Tampa Bay is NOT going to move Price. According to a report, the Mariners recently believed they had a deal to land Ben Zobrist from the Rays, but were told they’d not be dealing until the last 48 hours of July. That would be plausible considering Tampa Bay’s recent performance and playoff odds improvement.

Maybe we truly do need to wait until July 30th or 31st to know. But maybe Tampa Bay tanks over the next 10 days. Or maybe some team approaches them with an offer they cannot refuse, and they elect to trade Price tomorrow instead. We can’t know.

So, for a moment, let’s assume Tampa Bay does pull the trigger.

Many have suggested that Price’s comments some months back should give the Mariners pause. Price said he would not sign a contract extension with Seattle, if he were traded there.

The Mariners reportedly do not care about this, and nor should they. You shouldn’t care either.  Here is why:

·    As I’ve argued at length, the Mariners need to focus on improving their 2014 playoff chances. That means improving today’s team, likely by sacrificing some future value. David Price is team-controlled through 2015. That checks the most important box. He can very likely help the Mariners win in 2014 (and in 2015, should the team choose to retain him).

·    Regardless of whether David Price has a personal issue with Seattle or the Mariners, he has a massive incentive to perform well. Assuming he remains healthy and productive, David Price will likely sign a mega-contract some time before the 2016 season. He is playing for the livelihood of himself and his family. That is a powerful force.

·    Maybe the above reason is precisely why Price doesn’t want to sign an extension with Seattle – perhaps it’s because he doesn’t want to sign an extension with any team! Perhaps he is determined to hit free agency and have 30 teams bidding on his services. The Mariners shouldn’t let this possible reality affect their decision-making process.

·    Remember, when the free market takes over, David Price’s net value to a franchise will massively decline to this heavy contract. A heavy contract means less money available to sign other quality players. Price will be 30 years old then. He will probably still be talented and productive. But his career will have two fewer seasons left on it, at that point in time, versus what it has remaining today. So the fact is, the Mariners might not want Price beginning in 2016, at the prevailing market price.

·    Finally, remember that Price’s comments were made in December 2013. The Mariners were not expected to be contenders at that time, by most reasonable people. Now, seven months later, likely due to some significant luck, they are in playoff position. Maybe Price’s mind has changed. Maybe now that the Mariners have Robinson Cano, and a team of superstars on the Seahawks, Price feels like Seattle is a hotbed of sports success and an attractive place to call home.

But who cares? That isn’t the question. The question is whether he can help the 2014 Mariners make the playoffs. And yes, he likely can. The only question is: what should Seattle be willing to pay?

Don’t worry about hypotheticals in for the 2016 season. The landscape will have changed by then. Get a championship in 2014. That’s something you at least have some degree of control over.