Mariners Creatively Address #1 Problem

Originally posted on August 1, 2014

Today the Mariners addressed their #1 problem: the outfield. Now, let me be clear about something. From an opportunity cost perspective, it’s definitely not always advisable to address your #1 problem first and foremost. Why not? Because (a) there might not be easily-acquired upgrades available to address your #1 problem, or (b) you might have a separate problem that is much easier to solve, or can be solve/improved to a much greater extent. In fact, scenario (a) is the situation the Mariners found themselves in, coming into the trading deadline season. While their #1 problem has been an unproductive outfield for several years now, there seemingly was not a lot available when it came to outfielders.

Think about it. The entire trading deadline, teams were discussing names like David Price, Jon Lester and Cole Hamels. Those people are all pitchers. Hitters? Well we discussed Marlon Byrd, Alex Rios… and that’s about it. Much lower-profile guys.

So the Mariners came into late July with the following situation:

·    a terrible outfield that could that could be MASSIVELY upgraded by simply acquiring an average player or two, and substituting out the weak current players, but

·    there seemingly wasn’t a ton available

Enter a three-team deal to acquire a valuable but off-the-radar centerfielder in Austin Jackson, in combination with a secondary, but very important transaction to acquire super-off-the-radar Chris Denorfia. The net cost was Nick Franklin, Abraham Almonte and minor league reliever Stephen Kohlscheen.

I’m going to examine Austin Jackson in a moment. But he’s the headliner, a borderline star and the obvious improvement factor here. Less talked-about is the Chris Denorfia acquisition, which greatly helps upgrade the team’s previously-poor outfield because it allows for a platoon situation in right field, and possibly creates additional competition and optionality in left field as well.

Okay. Chris Denorfia. What is Chris Denorfia? Chris Denorfia is 34-years old and a free agent at the end of this season. He owns a career slash line of .275/.335/.397, good for a 106 wRC+. His defense is rated as average. In other words, Denorfia is an all-around average, older veteran, with two months of team control. So, why do I like him?

Because Denorfia destroys left-handed pitching, and the Mariners right fielders definitely, definitely do not. Specifically, Denorfia owns a 128 wRC+ against lefties in his career, while Michael Saunders owns a 96 wRC+ against righties in his career. This platoon package could very plausible be an above-average major league offensive weapon for the remainder of 2014. Compare that with the very, very below-average production level so far in 2014 from Mariners rightfielders, thanks to big playing time from Endy Chavez (71 wRC+ in 2014) and Steven Romero (52 wRC+) at the position.

Don’t worry if a Saunders+Denorfia platoon ends up being slightly below-average on net. Because that is definitely NOT the important point. The important point is that this platoon would represent a MASSIVE improvement relative to Chavez and Romero. At a minimum, this transaction takes innings away from players grossly under-performing, which is almost as impactful as…

acquiring a borderline-star center fielder in Austin Jackson. Here are the basics on Jackson:

·       Team-controlled through the 2015 season

·       Age 27

·       Career 106 wRC+ (6% above-average offense)

·       Slightly above-average defense

The above bullet points don’t really do Jackson justice. Remember that he’s playing a premium position in centerfield. It is hard to find centerfielders in today’s world that are truly above-average hitters. (They have to compete with first basemen, and corner outfielders, after all, in that regard.) So, Jackson is quite a valuable player, which is obvious just by observing the fact that he’s accumulated almost 16 career fWAR in just his fifth major league season.

Just like with Denorfia, I care not just about Jackson himself, but also the value of the player(s) he is replacing. Jackson replaces James Jones in centerfield.

Frankly, James Jones did not perform well at all. I know how badly he wants to be a MLB regular, and I sure as heck hope he is one day. But we should have seen this coming. He hasn’t show the ability to hit for power or draw walks, and his defense looked quite suspect, and was rated poorly. The solid batting average and great speed were nowhere close to strong enough to offset Jones’ flaws. I hope he works hard, gains a couple more tools, and contributes. But he produced -0.7 fWAR in his first MLB stint.

Put it this way. Over the course of a full MLB season, Austin Jackson could be about 3 fWAR better than Jones, or he could be about 6 fWAR better than Jones. Let’s call it 4.5, and split the difference. Right now, David Price is a 5 fWAR pitcher. So having Jackson over Jones, is something akin to adding David Price.

Add Denorfia, and you’re talking about a couple more incremental wins, over the previously-available outfielders. Now you’re adding more than David Price.

So today, it’s entirely possible the Mariners acquired David Price’s value, and were able to retain all of their top prospects, including Taijuan Walker, James Paxton and DJ Peterson.

Not bad at all. Now, they just have to execute on the field.