The Mariners Tried to Trade for Drew Stubbs. Why?

Originally posted on July 26, 2014

The Denver Post reports that the Mariners made a trade offer for Colorado Rockies outfielder Drew Stubbs.

Why?

If you read this blog or other analytically-focused articles, you’re probably getting more and more shrewd about how you value players.  And Drew Stubbs is a classic lesson in why the standard baseball metrics don’t accurately describe the player’s talent.  You need to delve deeper to see what you are actually getting in Stubbs.

Just take a look at his player page on Fangraphs.  And compare his traditional stats, with his meaningful stats:

A traditional baseball analyst might think:  Drew Stubbs is hitting .297/.335/.498 this season.  Wow!  That is great.

A serious baseball analyst, however, thinks: Dude. That slash line is impressive, but standard stats like AVG, OBP and SLG (a) are not adjusted for the baseball park Stubbs plays in, and (b) they are less correlated to team wins than something like wRC+. Stubbs’ 2014 wRC+ is 115, meaning this season, his total offensive performance has been about 15% better than league average – nothing more. In layman’s terms, Coors Field likely inflated his stats, because it is the preeminent hitter’s park, and because National League pitching is not as good as American League pitching. Stubbs would lose both of those advantages by moving to Seattle. Those are important factors that wRC+ accounts for, which a traditional slash line does not. Also very importantly, his current 115 wRC+ has occurred over just 258 plate appearances (PAs). For his career, Stubbs has 2,743 PAs, and a wRC+ of just 91. In other words, for his career, Stubbs’ total offensive production is about 9% below average.

By way of comparison, Michael Saunders is at 113 wRC+ in 2014, and his career wRC+ is 90. So, Drew Stubbs is very similar to Michael Saunders offensively.

Hmm.

Okay, so Drew Stubbs is having a solid season, but we should have serious doubts about his ability to continue to produce at this level.

But remember, we always need to think about a player’s contract, in addition to his talent and performance. Stubbs is second year arbitration-eligible, and not expected to make much more than a few million dollars in 2015. He’s a free agent in 2016. That’s okay, I suppose.

On the other hand, however, he’s already 29 years old. Yes, there certainly are players who peak at age 29 or later, but they are not typical.

Now, to be fair.   have no idea what the Mariners have offered to Colorado for Stubbs.  Maybe it was the proverbial “bucket of baseballs” that everyone jokes about when evaluating a penny-stock type of trade.

But maybe it was James Paxton or Nick Franklin. Giving up those players for Stubbs would have been a huge mistake.

This story screams “desperation move” and “outmoded analysis,” to me.